Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 30.172950 32.465045 34.937413 37.818508 41.104396 44.760418 49.171738
2025-03-23 27.287099 30.527608 34.259466 38.939655 44.748600 51.859351 61.453494
2025-03-30 24.967821 28.598785 32.952714 38.678053 46.204101 56.071852 70.587137
2025-04-06 23.170838 27.003308 31.739232 38.197617 47.084128 59.420710 79.002866
2025-04-13 21.453760 25.313112 30.187071 37.014883 46.741736 60.866407 84.743701
2025-04-20 20.883993 25.006808 30.351719 38.091390 49.612549 67.359578 100.085966
2025-04-27 20.319631 24.643940 30.380223 38.936719 52.200430 73.821263 117.385847
2025-05-04 19.742835 24.210351 30.256471 39.516416 54.411997 80.032215 136.481672
2025-05-11 18.976317 23.462501 29.625764 39.257071 55.203835 83.844693 151.946793
2025-05-18 18.242145 22.713420 28.935851 38.831266 55.639516 87.040287 167.359308
2025-05-25 17.492080 21.901182 28.100567 38.099669 55.444054 88.937395 180.300251
2025-06-01 16.778939 21.106892 27.245272 37.265909 54.965216 90.156258 191.996539
2025-06-08 15.957640 20.148761 26.134492 36.001158 53.687372 89.713741 199.413910
2025-06-15 15.773194 20.100995 26.389902 37.013173 56.790735 99.740848 250.748098
2025-06-22 15.299158 19.605545 25.929182 36.772537 57.443916 104.237005 286.296369
2025-06-29 14.814334 19.071860 25.378434 36.329651 57.632708 107.638742 321.538481
2025-07-06 14.215923 18.346207 24.492703 35.238201 56.370826 106.979824 335.696624
2025-07-13 14.118500 18.363270 24.774818 36.231691 59.589695 119.459493 451.139649
2025-07-20 13.978001 18.306962 24.933171 37.010862 62.471371 132.175324 617.713450
2025-07-27 13.794485 18.175615 24.959948 37.544702 64.887211 144.541522 860.335287
2025-08-03 13.472505 17.817623 24.594922 37.305921 65.460265 150.917808 1085.668111
2025-08-10 13.139952 17.431654 24.165996 36.913708 65.615200 155.905586 1357.067852
2025-08-17 12.773133 16.980738 23.610249 36.239326 64.997630 157.781811 1600.468647